VIA Rail will need additional Venture trains to meet passenger demand

With High Frequency Rail (HFR) finally approved as Alto HSR, but not expected be operational until the 2039 or later, Canada also needs to increase the capacity and reliability of VIA Rail’s existing Quebec-Windsor Corridor network to meet current and future passenger demand over the next decade, at least. Heavily booked trains are a good thing, but sold-out departures and demand-based fares driven up to unreasonable levels are not.

There are currently only six daily passenger train paths in each direction over the CN Kingston Subdivision between Toronto and Montreal, so most of them are operated with six, seven, or sometimes even eight cars to provide enough seats on this high-demand route. Additionally, travel times are about an hour longer today than in the 1980s.

This is the problem that HFR in its original form was supposed to address, by providing dedicated passenger tracks using existing standards and technology, delivered simultaneously with the enhanced capabilities of new VIA fleet. Because Transport Canada did not fully implement that strategy, because passenger demand has grown rapidly, and because increasingly frequent delays are undermining fleet utilization, VIA Rail is currently faced with keeping several sets of near life-expired HEP2 cars—1940s stainless steel equipment—running in the corridor to provide sufficient seats. This is not a feasible solution beyond the very short term because the heritage equipment is slower, less fuel efficient to operate, does not offer the level of accessibility expected, and is increasingly expensive to maintain. 

Transport Action therefore calls upon the federal government to allow VIA Rail to  resolve this problem swiftly, allowing it to grow passenger numbers and improve revenues without making fares prohibitive for the majority of potential passengers.

VIA Rail will need at least 12 additional economy-class Venture cars to lengthen six of the new five-car trains into seven-car consists, enough to cover the existing high-demand schedules and a maintenance rotation, but this will not be sufficient on its own.

Several actions must be taken simultaneously to improve fleet utilization, otherwise as many as six complete additional trains also may also be required to cover the current schedule. In 2018, VIA Rail was able to operate three departures per day with many train consists by using two locomotives. However, it has not been possible to fully realize the intended benefits of the new bidirectional Venture trains due to the above mentioned deteriorating operating conditions and more frequent delays, leading to some departures being suspended due to lack of equipment in spring 2025.

To overcome these problems requires improved train dispatching, track maintenance, signalling, and station infrastructure to improve operational fluidity and on-time performance. This requires a combination of proactive regulatory oversight of CN and Metrolinx; modest infrastructure investments to relieve bottlenecks like Coteau junction that CN is legitimately concerned about; and fully funding VIA Rail for preventative and predictive maintenance to avoid self-inflicted disruptions.

If the operational and maintenance issues are addressed, VIA Rail should be able to operate an adequate corridor schedule with the 32 trains already purchased, while providing a much better passenger experience and generating a higher return on capital employed in the new Venture fleet.

As discussed in our Beyond HFR report in 2024, improved on-time performance could also allow some Montreal and Ottawa trains to operate in multiple westbound, freeing up network paths for additional passenger and freight movements and balancing crew schedules. With that optimization, we believe it is realistic to operate at least one more daily VIA Rail round trip between Toronto and Montreal and add an additional freight path in each direction. However, CN has thus far declined to share the data necessary for Transport Action to collaborate with university researchers and accurately model this. While CN’s commitments to its shareholders are understood, it also needs to consider the national interest as a critical transportation service provider.

The government should also allow the purchase of at least one additional locomotive and one cab car to protect against the risk of collision damage over the life of the fleet. There is a solid business case for this that recognises the heavy repair or replacement time would run to months or years, during which time the rest of the affected train would be unable to operate, once again leaving VIA short of equipment.

Once Alto HSR comes into operation, we would expect it to stimulate passenger demand in Southwestern Ontario and for other conventional feeder services, so this crucial investment in additional Venture cars for VIA Rail today should continue to add value long into the future.